As the name implies, these automakers will avoid entering the AV market in the short to medium term.
They will most likely invest in AV research and then wait for the vehicle-level costs of the core technologies to drop while penetration in the premium segments grows. These OEMs have significant technical and commercial legacies. New industry players developing “radically new” vehicle architectures-such as high-tech giants, first-tier suppliers, and mobility operators-will focus on the “accessible mobility” consumer segment to capture volumes quickly and sustain ancillary business models. This likely means they will gradually introduce increasing levels of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in their vehicles. Established premium players with extensive customer bases and strong technical and commercial legacies will probably take an incremental approach to AVs. We have identified four strategic stances they can assume when introducing their autonomous-vehicle offerings: Car OEMs face a decision.Īutomakers worldwide will likely define and communicate their strategic position on AVs in the next two to three years. Long-term automated commercial fleets might include vehicles for parcel delivery as well as automated drones, which multiple players are already field-testing.
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Prototypes already exist, and companies are currently developing the software algorithms needed to handle complex driving situations.
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In the medium term (through 2040), on-highway trucks will likely be the first vehicles to feature the full technology on public roads. Other adjacent equipment applications-for example, in the construction and warehousing sectors-should see the next AV applications for vehicles such as excavators, forklifts, and loaders. Some of the benefits of autonomy in these fields include labor-cost savings and the reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through optimized driving (shown to cut emissions by as much as 60 percent). In these cases, the restricted nature of operations and the possibility to operate on private roads facilitate adoption. While it’s unlikely that any on-road vehicles will feature “fully autonomous” drive technology in the short term (for instance, by 2020–22), AVs are already a reality in selected applications that feature controlled environments, such as mining and farming. Please email us at: Era one: AVs not yet available to consumers 1. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website.
To explore these implications in depth, we focused on three time horizons of AV diffusion: before such vehicles are commercially available to individual buyers, when they are in the early stage of adoption, and when they become the primary means of transport (exhibit). The widespread use of AVs could profoundly affect a variety of industry sectors. In an effort to look beyond today’s rapidly changing predictions on AV penetration, we interviewed more than 30 experts across Europe, the United States, and Asia and combined these findings with our insights to arrive at ten thought-provoking potential implications of self-driving cars. While high levels of uncertainty currently surround the issue, the ultimate role that AVs could play regarding the economy, mobility, and society as a whole could be profound. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent a major innovation for the automotive industry, but their potential impact with respect to timing, uptake, and penetration remains hazy.
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